Model raises expected cancellations to about 35 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 8 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.3 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.1 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 46 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 12 → 46 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~46.4 over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 46 → 15 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.7 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 15 → 11 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.1 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 35 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 35 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 35 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~34.6 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.