tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation LAS departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 24 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~24.3 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 32 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 24 → 32 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 32 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~31.9 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 32 → 8 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.4 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.0 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 10 → 13 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.1 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 13 → 19 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 92 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~19.4 over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 AM PST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 93 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~25.4 over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.