Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Sunday to 41%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 18 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Sunday at 50%
What changed: 40% → 50% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 18 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 22:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Sunday to 57%
What changed: 50% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 18 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM PST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Sunday to 54%
What changed: 57% → 54% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 18 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Sunday to 41%
What changed: 54% → 41% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 17 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:01 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.