Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 45%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 55%
What changed: 45% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 12:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM PST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 60%
What changed: 55% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 45%
What changed: 60% → 45% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?