Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 65%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 66%
What changed: 47% → 66% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 78%
What changed: 66% → 78% since the 11:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 78% over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM PST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 65%
What changed: 78% → 65% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM PST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.