tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data <1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation LAS departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 27 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.1 over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 PM PST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 27 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.2 over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 PM PST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.