Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 88%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 62%
What changed: 58% → 62% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 76%
What changed: 62% → 76% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 76% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 88%
What changed: 76% → 88% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Saturday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 88% over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.