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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation LAS departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 8:56 AM PST
Updates: 8

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST

Model expects about 27 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 96 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~26.6 over 96 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST

Updated model now expects about 39 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 27 → 39 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~39.1 over 97 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 8.5 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 39 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~9.5 over 97 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 7.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 9 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~9.9 over 97 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 96 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~9.5 over 96 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 33 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 10 → 33 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 96 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~33.2 over 96 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 3.6 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 33 → 12 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 96 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~11.7 over 96 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 2.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 8:56 AM PST