Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 68%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%
What changed: 53% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 53%
What changed: 60% → 53% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 55%
What changed: 53% → 55% since the 3:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 68%
What changed: 55% → 68% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 68% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.