Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 14 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 114 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.6 over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 11 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 14 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 115 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.9 over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 115 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.9 over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?