Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.9 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 18 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.5 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 18 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.8 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 33 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 33 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~32.6 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 33 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.5 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.