tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation LGA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
Create monitor View LGAFlights at LGA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 101 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.3 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 101 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.4 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 101 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.7 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 9 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 101 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.9 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 102 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.8 over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.1 over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 10 → 39 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~39.1 over 105 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.