Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.5 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.2 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 3 → 8 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.5 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 27 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~26.8 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 27 → 10 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.4 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 31 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 31 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 31 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~30.7 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 31 → 14 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 67 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.0 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.