tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 82 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay LGA departures

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 62%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View LGAFlights at LGA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from LaGuardia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 66 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 62%

    What changed: 45% → 62% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from LaGuardia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 66 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.