tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 81 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major New Delay BWI departures

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for BWI departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

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Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for BWI departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from BWI midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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