Model lowers expected cancellations among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 2
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:58 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.0 over 50 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.5 over 50 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 2
What changed: about 4 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.4 over 50 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?