Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 83%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 180 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 59%
What changed: 50% → 59% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 181 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 181 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 72%
What changed: 59% → 72% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 72% over 180 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 83%
What changed: 72% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 83% over 180 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.