Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.4 over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 11.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 23 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 23 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~23.3 over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 44 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 23 → 44 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 44 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~44.1 over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 54 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 44 → 54 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 54 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~53.7 over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 54 → 13 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.9 over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 29 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 13 → 29 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~28.8 over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 29 → 17 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.0 over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.