tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation ATL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 22 cancellations among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~22.5 over 160 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 29 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 22 → 29 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~29.2 over 160 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 29 → 24 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~24.1 over 160 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 24 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 162 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~17.1 over 162 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.