Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 267 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 60%
What changed: 46% → 60% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 267 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%
What changed: 60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 265 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?