Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 15 cancellations among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 267 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.8 over 267 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 15 → 36 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 267 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~35.6 over 267 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 44 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 36 → 44 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 44 of the 265 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~44.4 over 265 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 33 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 44 → 33 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 265 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~33.1 over 265 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 33 → 25 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 264 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~25.3 over 264 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?