Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 12 cancellations among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 210 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.4 over 210 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 210 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~27.7 over 210 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 20 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 28 → 20 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.3 over 209 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 20 → 21 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~21.1 over 209 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?