tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 24%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:56 AM CDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 4:00 AM CDT · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 24%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 24%; calm-weather level 19%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Monday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)24% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 5:00 AM CDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?