Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.9 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 11.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 17 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.3 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 17 → 30 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~29.6 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 30 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.4 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 14 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.8 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 14 → 18 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.9 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?