Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 60%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for JFK departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 60%
What changed: 50% → 60% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?