Model raises JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for JFK departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 73 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%
What changed: 47% → 61% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 73 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?