tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation LGA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 10 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.5 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 13 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 10 → 13 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.1 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 13 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 90 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.0 over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.0 over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.