tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 82 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant New Delay LGA departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Sunday

Current state
New
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View LGAFlights at LGA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LaGuardia noon–3 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 108 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?