Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Sunday
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.0 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.3 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 13 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.8 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?