tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant New Delay LGA departures

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 30 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 9:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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