Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 183 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.7 over 183 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 24 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 183 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~24.4 over 183 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 18 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 24 → 18 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 183 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.3 over 183 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 18 → 17 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 184 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.4 over 184 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM PST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 17 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 184 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.9 over 184 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 17 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 184 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.1 over 184 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM PST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.