Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 55%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 54% delay risk for LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM PST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 19:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday at 58%
What changed: 54% → 58% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM PST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 55%
What changed: 58% → 55% since the 11:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?