tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 8:00 AM PDT · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 17, 12:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.