tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 74%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM EDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%

    What changed: 50% → 61% since the 1:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 3:00 PM EDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 74%

    What changed: 61% → 74% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)74% over 55 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 5:00 PM EDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:00 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.