tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 3:00 PM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%

    What changed: 57% → 60% since the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.