tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 67 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 38%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 11:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 11:00 PM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 38%

    What changed: 49% → 38% since the 11:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)38% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 3:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:01 AM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.