tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 67 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 119 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 2:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 56%

    What changed: 46% → 56% since the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 11:00 AM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.