Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 228 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 228 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min
FAA NAS status is stale (228 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (228 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
▲ 62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:47 PM and 8:47 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:46 PM and 3:16 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 25. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Of 11 aircraft that landed at Hobby (HOU) between 7:54 PM and 8:54 PM CST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.4 minutes; the median was 9.6 minutes. Usually 2% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 7:26 PM and 8:26 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Of 17 departures that took off between 2:41 PM and 3:41 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
▼ 69% → 60% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 64% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 24 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:54 PM and 3:24 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
▼ 73% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 73% → 65% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 2:54 PM and 3:54 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:45 PM and 3:15 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 25. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:17 PM and 9:17 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View HOU
▼ 79% → 67% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 79% → 72% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.