Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:33 PM–12:33 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 17.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 14.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: tight share 42% at worst → 0% now
Of the 19 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 11:06 PM and 12:36 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:06 PM–12:36 AM PSTTight turns 0 of 15Share 0%
What changed: 58% → 55%; calm-weather level 49%
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 48 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 4:50 PM and 6:20 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 40. For 12 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 4:50 PM–6:20 PM PSTTight turns 12 of 40Share 30%
What changed: late share 65% at worst → 10% now
Of 30 departures that took off between 10:16 AM and 11:16 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:16 AM–11:16 AM PSTSample 30 flightsLate 10%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 63% → 51%
Of 49 departures that took off between 9:20 AM and 10:20 AM PST, 25 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:20 AM–10:20 AM PSTSample 49 flightsLate 51%Typical 16%
What changed: late share 48% → 63%
Of 38 departures that took off between 9:00 AM and 10:00 AM PST, 24 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:00 AM–10:00 AM PSTSample 38 flightsLate 63%Typical 16%
Of 27 departures that took off between 8:37 AM and 9:37 AM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:37 AM–9:37 AM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 48%Typical 16%
What changed: late share 67% at worst → 0% now
Of 27 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:49 AM–6:49 AM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 0%Typical 6%
Of 15 departures that took off between 8:01 PM and 9:01 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:01 PM–9:01 PM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 67%Typical 39%
What changed: tight share 28% at worst → 3% now
Of the 34 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 6:26 PM and 7:56 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 33. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 6:26 PM–7:56 PM PSTTight turns 1 of 33Share 3%
Of the 39 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 4:56 PM and 6:26 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 35. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 4:56 PM–6:26 PM PSTTight turns 9 of 35Share 26%
What changed: late share 77% at worst → 0% now
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 6:33 AM and 7:33 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:33 AM–7:33 AM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 59% at worst → 5% now
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:58 AM and 6:58 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:58 AM–6:58 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%
Of 24 departures that took off between 10:53 PM and 11:53 PM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:53 PM–11:53 PM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%
What changed: tight share 39% at worst → 8% now
Of the 16 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 11:30 PM and 1:00 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:30 PM–1:00 AM PSTTight turns 1 of 12Share 8%
What changed: late share 45% → 66%
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 10:14 PM and 11:14 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:14 PM–11:14 PM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 66%Typical 21%
Of 33 arrivals that landed between 8:54 PM and 9:54 PM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:54 PM–9:54 PM PSTSample 33 flightsLate 45%Typical 21%
Of the 34 departures scheduled from Las Vegas (LAS) between 9:15 PM and 10:45 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 9:15 PM–10:45 PM PSTTight turns 9 of 24Share 38%
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 3% now
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:59 AM–6:59 AM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 3%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 64% at worst → 5% now
Of 20 departures that took off between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:55 AM–6:55 AM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%
Older items Every published update, newest first.