Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 7%
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 7%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 AM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 7%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 47% → 83% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 83%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 7% now
Of 14 departures that took off between 10:07 AM and 11:07 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 13% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 23% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:07 AM–11:07 AM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 7%Typical 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 62% → 54%
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:34 AM and 7:34 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:34 AM–7:34 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 7%
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:14 AM and 7:14 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:14 AM–7:14 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 6%
What changed: late share 69% → 42%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 7:20 PM and 8:20 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:20 PM–8:20 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 23%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 6:37 PM and 7:37 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:37 PM–7:37 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 69%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 5:25 PM and 6:25 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:25 PM–6:25 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 30%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:41 PM and 5:41 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:41 PM–5:41 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 12:31 PM and 1:31 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:31 PM–1:31 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 21%
Of 12 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:23 AM–12:23 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 18%
What changed: 47% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 38%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:07 PM and 8:07 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:07 PM–8:07 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 23%
Of 12 departures that took off between 5:20 PM and 6:20 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:20 PM–6:20 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 30%
What changed: 41% → 51% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City noon–3 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:31 PM and 7:31 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:31 PM–7:31 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 69%Typical 37%
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 21.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
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