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Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 47%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Kansas City departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 62% → 54%

Of 13 departures that took off between 6:34 AM and 7:34 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 6:34 AM–7:34 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 7%

Kansas City arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 69% → 42%

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 7:20 PM and 8:20 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 7:20 PM–8:20 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 23%

Kansas City: 8 of 15 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

Of the 22 departures scheduled from Kansas City (MCI) between 5:38 PM and 7:08 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MCI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

Next 5:38 PM–7:08 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 15Share 53%

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 48%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Kansas City departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 12 departures that took off between 5:25 PM and 6:25 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 5:25 PM–6:25 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 30%

Kansas City arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:41 PM and 5:41 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 4:41 PM–5:41 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 23%

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Kansas City departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 56%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 51%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Kansas City departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 13 departures that took off between 12:31 PM and 1:31 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 12:31 PM–1:31 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 21%

Kansas City departures running late: 42% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 12 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 11:23 AM–12:23 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 18%

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Tuesday

Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 47%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Official observation reports very low cloud or visibility at Kansas City

The 4:10 AM CST official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) reports ceiling 400 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 12 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

Observed 4:10 AM CST