Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: late share 81% → 58%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:21 AM and 1:21 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:21 AM–1:21 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 62% → 72%
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:06 PM–12:06 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 28%
Of 32 departures that took off between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM EST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:37 PM–11:37 PM ESTSample 32 flightsLate 62%Typical 28%
What changed: late share 52% → 81%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 10:00 PM and 11:00 PM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:00 PM–11:00 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 81%Typical 22%
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 7:58 PM and 8:58 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:58 PM–8:58 PM ESTSample 29 flightsLate 52%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 89% at worst → 24% now
Of 33 departures that took off between 6:20 PM and 7:20 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:20 PM–7:20 PM ESTSample 33 flightsLate 24%Typical 34%
What changed: 44% → 35%; calm-weather level 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 35%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 72% → 57%
Of 30 departures that took off between 1:40 PM and 2:40 PM EST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:40 PM–2:40 PM ESTSample 30 flightsLate 57%Typical 28%
What changed: late share 56% → 72%
Of 25 departures that took off between 12:08 PM and 1:08 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:08 PM–1:08 PM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 72%Typical 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 68% → 56%
Of 25 departures that took off between 11:47 AM and 12:47 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:47 AM–12:47 PM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 56%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 41% → 68%
Of 25 departures that took off between 11:21 AM and 12:21 PM EST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:21 AM–12:21 PM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 68%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 61% → 41%
Of 27 departures that took off between 9:42 AM and 10:42 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:42 AM–10:42 AM ESTSample 27 flightsLate 41%Typical 17%
Of 18 departures that took off between 9:14 AM and 10:14 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:14 AM–10:14 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 61%Typical 15%
What changed: late share 74% at worst → 7% now
Of 30 departures that took off between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:43 PM–10:43 PM ESTSample 30 flightsLate 7%Typical 30%
What changed: late share 70% → 53%
Of 36 departures that took off between 8:58 PM and 9:58 PM EST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:58 PM–9:58 PM ESTSample 36 flightsLate 53%Typical 31%
What changed: late share 57% → 70%
Of 40 departures that took off between 8:34 PM and 9:34 PM EST, 28 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:34 PM–9:34 PM ESTSample 40 flightsLate 70%Typical 31%
Of 37 departures that took off between 8:07 PM and 9:07 PM EST, 21 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:07 PM–9:07 PM ESTSample 37 flightsLate 57%Typical 32%
What changed: late share 56% at worst → 13% now
Of 23 departures that took off between 3:37 PM and 4:37 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 3:37 PM–4:37 PM ESTSample 23 flightsLate 13%Typical 30%
Of 18 departures that took off between 2:25 PM and 3:25 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:25 PM–3:25 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 56%Typical 28%
What changed: late share 65% at worst → 7% now
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:51 AM and 6:51 AM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:51 AM–6:51 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 61% → 46%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:46 PM and 11:46 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:46 PM–11:46 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 48% → 61%
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 10:15 PM and 11:15 PM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:15 PM–11:15 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 61%Typical 22%
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