Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: range 31–45 → 46–60 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 46–60 min at Phoenix (PHX), citing “TM Initiatives:Other:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
What changed: range 16–30 → 31–45 min; reason now “TM Initiatives:Other:EQ”
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 31–45 min at Phoenix (PHX), citing “TM Initiatives:Other:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Phoenix (PHX), citing “EQ:FAA”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
Of the 58 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 1:33 PM and 3:03 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 39. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:33 PM–3:03 PM MSTTight turns 11 of 39Share 28%
What changed: 54% → 47%; calm-weather level 40%
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 60% at worst → 24% now
Of 46 departures that took off between 11:15 AM and 12:15 PM MST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:15 AM–12:15 PM MSTSample 46 flightsLate 24%Typical 21%
Of 43 departures that took off between 10:04 AM and 11:04 AM MST, 24 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:04 AM–11:04 AM MSTSample 43 flightsLate 56%Typical 17%
What changed: 46% → 42%; calm-weather level 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 7% now
Of 30 arrivals that landed between 6:21 AM and 7:21 AM MST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:21 AM–7:21 AM MSTSample 30 flightsLate 7%Typical 20%
What changed: late share 54% at worst → 6% now
Of 16 departures that took off between 5:51 AM and 6:51 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:51 AM–6:51 AM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 6%Typical 5%
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM MST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:30 PM–12:30 AM MSTSample 19 flightsLate 47%Typical 20%
Of 15 departures that took off between 11:14 PM and 12:14 AM MST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:14 PM–12:14 AM MSTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 19%
What changed: tight share 32% at worst → 0% now
Of the 13 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 11:45 PM and 1:15 AM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:45 PM–1:15 AM MSTTight turns 0 of 12Share 0%
Of the 54 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 8:01 PM and 9:31 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 44. For 13 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 8:01 PM–9:31 PM MSTTight turns 13 of 44Share 30%
What changed: slow share 54% at worst → 4% now
Of 28 aircraft that landed at Phoenix (PHX) between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM MST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4 minutes; the median was 3.5 minutes. Usually 6% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 14% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:35 AM–11:35 AM MSTSample 28 arrivalsSlow 4%Usually 6%
What changed: slow share 51% → 26%
Of 38 aircraft that landed at Phoenix (PHX) between 9:50 AM and 10:50 AM MST and have reached the ramp, 10 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4 minutes; the median was 4.5 minutes. Usually 6% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Landed 9:50 AM–10:50 AM MSTSample 38 arrivalsSlow 26%Usually 6%
Of 49 aircraft that landed at Phoenix (PHX) between 9:12 AM and 10:12 AM MST and have reached the ramp, 25 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4 minutes; the median was 16.8 minutes. Usually 6% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Landed 9:12 AM–10:12 AM MSTSample 49 arrivalsSlow 51%Usually 6%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:53 PM and 12:53 AM MST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:53 PM–12:53 AM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 44%Typical 20%
Of 14 departures that took off between 9:17 PM and 10:17 PM MST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:17 PM–10:17 PM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 34%
What changed: slow share 31% at worst → 0% now
Of 30 aircraft that landed at Phoenix (PHX) between 10:20 AM and 11:20 AM MST and have reached the ramp, 0 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.1 minutes; the median was 3.5 minutes. Usually 6% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 14% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:20 AM–11:20 AM MSTSample 30 arrivalsSlow 0%Usually 6%
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