Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:00 PM–12:00 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:06 PM and 9:06 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:06 PM–9:06 PM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:56 PM–1:56 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 6:53 PM PST. The latest, at 7:39 PM PST, reports ceiling 8500 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt.
Observed 7:39 PM PST
The 6:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports ceiling 900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 7 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.
Observed 6:53 PM PST
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 2:53 PM PST. The latest, at 3:28 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 3700 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 5 kt.
Observed 3:28 PM PST
The 1:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain; mist, ceiling 3500 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.
Observed 1:53 PM PST
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 11:53 AM PST. The latest, at 12:27 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 5000 ft, visibility 3 mi, wind 6 kt.
Observed 12:27 PM PST
The 11:43 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports light rain, ceiling 4400 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 0 kt. Coded weather: “-RA”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.
Observed 11:43 AM PST
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:53 AM PST. The latest, at 11:26 AM PST, reports haze, ceiling 6500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 0 kt.
Observed 11:26 AM PST
What changed: 34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The 10:14 AM PST official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) reports rain; mist, ceiling 6000 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 6 kt. Coded weather: “RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.
Observed 10:14 AM PST
What changed: 50% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:43 PM–10:43 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 19%
What changed: 58% → 52% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 46% → 58% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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