Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: airport closure no longer listed
The airport closure at Orange County (SNA) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:14 AM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:00 AM PST.
What changed: about 11 → 15 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 32 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: airport closure no longer listed
The airport closure at Orange County (SNA) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:27 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:30 PM PST.
What changed: 48% → 83% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 83%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 51% → 87% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 87%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:40 PM–7:40 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 25%
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:14 PM–1:14 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 62% at worst → 19% now
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 19%Typical 18%
Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:19 PM–9:19 PM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 80%Typical 29%
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 4:06 AM PST. The latest, at 4:13 AM PST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 1500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 4 kt.
Observed 4:13 AM PST
What changed: airport closure no longer listed
The airport closure at Orange County (SNA) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 12:33 PM PDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:31 PM PDT.
Of the 15 departures scheduled from Orange County (SNA) between 7:40 PM and 9:10 PM PDT, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 7:40 PM–9:10 PM PDTTight turns 8 of 12Share 67%
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