Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4702
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
YX 4702 · DCA → LGA
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 20%
Thu 10/1 32%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.