AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

took off 5:39 PM ET · landed 7:53 PM CT (scheduled 6:32 PM ET → 9:13 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?