Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
F9 2215 · SJU → TPA
departs 5:22 PM AT · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 50%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.