Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4084 · DFW → SAT
departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 91%
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3 42%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.