Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 1157 · MDW → DCA
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 45%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.94 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.